Uncertainties in the Projected Patterns of Wave-Driven Longshore Sediment Transport Along a Non-straight Coastline

This study quantifies the uncertainties in projected changes potential longshore sediment transport (LST) rates along a non-straight coastline. Four main sources of uncertainty, including choice emission scenarios, Global Circulation Model-driven offshore wave datasets (GCM-Ws), LST models, and their non-linear interactions were addressed through two ensemble modelling frameworks. The first consisted forcing conditions without any bias correction (i.e., parameters extracted from eight GCM-Ws for baseline period 1979–2005, future 2081–2100 under scenarios), hybrid transformation method, models four bulk formulae, process-based models). differentiating factor second was application to GCM-Ws, using hindcast dataset as reference. All members weighted according performance reproduce reference patterns period. Additionally, total uncertainty projections decomposed into ANOVA method. Finally, robustness checked. Comparison obtained ensembles indicated that could relatively reduce ranges projections. On annual scale, contribution about 10–20, 35–50, 5–15, 30–35%, respectively. Overall, means reported decrease net mean (less than 10% RCP 4.5, 10–20% 8.5). However, no robust on seasonal scales found, questioning ultimate decision being made changes.